Global conflicts and rising prices are pushing energy costs up. Find out why the people facing financial hardship are being hit hardest and read the changes we’re calling for.
The conflict in the Middle East has dominated the news cycle for weeks now. And while much of the political focus has been on geopolitics, military strategy and the protagonists of the conflict, there is a question that matters just as much for the people we work with at CAP: what does this mean for household energy bills?
The short answer is: potentially quite a lot.
Wholesale gas prices are already around 50% higher than they were before fighting escalated, and the ripple effects are moving quickly toward UK households. Analysts at Cornwall Insight have forecast that Ofgem’s price cap for July to September could surge to £1,801 a year for a typical dual fuel household, a 10% increase on the current cap. Financial firm Stifel has warned that if the conflict drags on long enough, average household energy bills could reach £2,500 per year.
For now, most households are shielded by the Ofgem price cap. But that protection is temporary. And for the people we support at CAP, who are often already behind on their energy bills before a crisis like this hits, “protected until July” is not reassurance. It is a countdown.
At Christians Against Poverty (CAP), we support people experiencing financial hardship across the UK. Through our free debt help service, we work alongside people who are navigating some of the most difficult financial circumstances imaginable. Energy debt is already one of the most common forms of arrears we see. A global price shock does not create a new problem for these households. It deepens an existing one.
We have been here before
This is not the first time a global shock has landed hardest on the households least equipped to absorb it. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, energy prices rose roughly fivefold and the government stepped in with a support package to bring bills down. The scale of what we are facing now is different, but the structure of the problem is exactly the same: a system that links UK household bills to global commodity markets, with no permanent, structural protection for people on the lowest incomes.
The question that matters now is whether the government will respond to this moment with temporary sticking plasters again, or whether it will use it as a reason to finally build something permanent.
What the government has done – and why it is not enough
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced a £53 million support package for households reliant on heating oil, which is not covered by the energy price cap and has seen prices roughly double since the crisis began. The government has also capped energy bills until the end of June, saving the average household £117, and given a legal direction to energy companies to ensure savings from the last Budget are passed directly to customers.
These are welcome steps. But they do not go far enough, and they do not last long enough.
The £53 million heating oil fund amounts to roughly £35 per household for the 1.5 million homes that depend on heating oil, a fraction of the £350 additional cost many face from filling a typical 500-litre tank after prices doubled overnight. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has already acknowledged that a universal bailout for every household, as happened after Ukraine, would be unaffordable given the UK’s current debt levels, meaning any further intervention is likely to be targeted at those on the lowest incomes. That targeting is not wrong in principle. But it only works if people in need can actually access the support they are entitled to. And the evidence tells us many cannot.
According to research by Policy in Practice, more than £24 billion in benefits and support will go unclaimed in 2025–26, spread across an estimated seven million households, an average of £3,428 per household that is simply never claimed. The reasons are well documented: a lack of awareness, the complexity of the welfare system, and stigma around seeking support. Hard-to-understand eligibility rules mean that people are often unsure if they qualify, and without a trusted source of information, many assume they do not.
This is not a niche problem. It is a systemic one. And it is precisely why a targeted support approach, without automatic enrolment, will always leave the most vulnerable behind.
What needs to change
We have a clear view on what permanent looks like, and it does not involve waiting for the next global crisis to force another emergency intervention.
The current system of energy support is fragmented, inconsistently applied and heavily reliant on people knowing what they are entitled to and actively claiming it. For many of the households we support, that is simply not how life works. Debt, poor mental health, chaotic circumstances and a system designed around self-navigation means that the people who most need support are often the least likely to access it.
Here is what we are calling for:
- A single social tariff. The existing patchwork of schemes, discounts and rebates needs to be replaced with one consistent social tariff, delivered the same way by every supplier, in every region. People should not receive different levels of protection depending on who their energy supplier is.
- Automatic enrollment at the heart of any solution. Any social tariff must be built around automatic enrolment as its default. If a household qualifies, they should be enrolled without having to apply. The responsibility for identifying and supporting eligible households cannot continue to rest entirely on those households.
- Faster, smarter data sharing. Government departments including DWP and HMRC, Ofgem and energy suppliers must accelerate progress on data sharing so that eligibility can be identified proactively and securely. The Data Sharing Working Group established in 2024 was a step in the right direction. It needs to move faster, and the results need to be implemented at scale.
- Support that reflects real need. Flat-rate rebates are not fit for purpose. The people we work with do not all have the same level of need, the same level of debt or the same level of vulnerability. Support must be evidence-based, tiered to actual need, and reviewed regularly to reflect what energy actually costs, not what it cost when a scheme was first designed.
The political moment
The decisions made in the coming weeks and months about how to respond to rising energy costs will set the tone for what the UK’s long-term approach to energy affordability looks like. There is a political opportunity here that should not be wasted.
The people we work with cannot keep being protected by temporary caps that expire and emergency packages that run out. They need a system that treats their exposure to energy poverty as a structural problem with a structural solution, not a crisis to be managed until the next one arrives.
That is what a social tariff, designed properly and implemented permanently, would do. We are calling on the government and Ofgem to use this moment to build it.
